Tag Archives: #republicans

I won the election for Barack Obama!

LEGOheadThe ballot numbers aren’t even cold yet, and we’ve already heard from so-called researchers about the impact of certain voting blocks on the election.  Before anybody gets too giddy about their pet group’s contribution to election results, a review of the results for certain key segments is in order:

* Blacks, representing more or less 10% of the electorate, voted 93% for Obama (vs. about 96% in 2008 according to HuffPost).

* Latinos, making up just over 10% of the electorate, voted about 69% for Obama (vs. about 71% in 2008 according to Pew Research)

* Whites, which made up 72% of the electorate, voted 39% for Obama (compared to 43% in 2008 according to the Washington Post)

* Millennials, often cited as a separate segment but with overlap in the racial/ethnic segments, voted about 60% for Obama (compared to about 66% in 2008 according to Pew Research)

*Women, also forming part of the racial/ethnic segments, voted 55% for Obama (compared to 56% in 2008 according to Newsweek)

I’m actually impressed with what these results DON’T show.  That is, there was no major change in any of the major voting segments in comparison to the numbers that won Obama the Presidency in 2008.  This can only mean one of two things:

  1. The Obama campaign machine was highly effective at retaining support that would have otherwise been eroded by the Romney message.  I find this interpretation highly suspect since there were few meaningful Obama successes to cite, and the US economic recovery has been anemic.  Additionally, ALL of his voting blocks remained so consistent in their support, with minor declines so equally dispersed, that it would be highly unlikely that such uniformity was a well-coordinated outcome.  This would not imply that the President’s field teams and voter contact efforts had no impact, only that the larger victory resulted from something else.
  2. Romney’s campaign efforts were wholly ineffective, and Obama could have spent the last year sitting on his couch.  Not to make light of this failure, but it appears that the messages of the Republican Party and its candidate simply did not resonate with voters.

In light of this, any analysis about “who won it for Obama” would seem moot, not praiseworthy.  Minority population shifts aside, the historically Democratic base remained so, and likewise for the Republican base.  When we behave as expected, I call that uneventful.  In fact, this election’s near duplication of 2008 results seems to have demonstrated that voters are now far less likely to change their loyalties than before, no matter how difficult the current conditions or the power of political promises made.  Campaign strategy should look very different in 2016.